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Name: Leon
Email: leon@leonstorie.com
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Election Prediction

I have been very critical of John McCain - both stylistically and substantively. I think he is a man essentially devoid of an ideological foundation, a man for whom principle is secondary to instinct. He is not conservative, he is not liberal, he is just unpredictable. He proudly declares himself a maverick, but he is a maverick with no particular purpose. He probably has hurt the Republican Party far more than Barack Obama could ever have. Yet, despite my displeasure with his candidacy, I believe he will win tomorrow.

I believe that the race is far closer than the polls indicate. In fact, I have a hunch that he is actually winning in all of the battleground states, including Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. What explains the difference in the polls and what I believe is reality? Is it the Bradley Effect? If the Bradley Effect means that there are large packs of secret racists who are trying to fool pollsters, then no, I do not believe in the Bradley Effect. If the Bradley Effect means that there are large segments of the population who are unsure of Obama because of his race, his educational background, his past associations, his name, etc., then I do believe in the Bradley Effect. These people are not going to vote against Obama because he is black, they are going to vote against him because he is different. That is not racist, despite what anyone may say.

Is a McCain victory better for the U.S. than an Obama victory? I doubt it. If it is better, it is only marginally better at best. In the end, I think McCain will run a very ineffective administration and will finish the dismantling of the Republican Party that he started in this campaign, and that's OK with me. I believe that the Republican Party needs to be burnt to the ground and rebuilt. I will be working with the Paulians for dominance, and we have our best chance at winning ever - thanks to John McCain.

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